tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4867 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4867 Southwest SDF 07:16 BNA 07:25 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2630 Southwest SDF 18:16 BNA 18:25 15% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 5h 09m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 25m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002 5h 57m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 5h 09m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SDF 13:02 → ATL 14:33DL 1481 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 6h 50m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic 3h 09m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 6h 13m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic 2h 41m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 6h 14m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → SDF 07:06 → ORD 07:51AA 4413 · flown by Republic 3h 41m Chicago ORD 11:32 → BNA 13:16AA 2362 7h 10m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SDF 15:41 → IAH 17:10UA 6310 · flown by Mesa 52m Houston IAH 18:02 → BNA 20:27UA 4785 · flown by SkyWest 5h 46m 72% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON