Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4685 Republic	SDF 16:52	BOS 19:37	22%	11%	0.8%	no record
DL 5615 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 12:49	BOS 15:25	22%	9%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BOS 11:06DL 2432	5h 06m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	5h 40m	97%	85%
American Details →	SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic	2h 51m Washington	DCA 10:41 → BOS 12:25AA 1015	6h 25m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	5h 37m	96%	82%
United Details →	SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 10:30 → BOS 14:07UA 1606	6h 52m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:49 → MSP 08:00DL 4928 · flown by Endeavor	2h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	7h 02m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	SDF 13:02 → ATL 14:33DL 1481	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 18:15 → BOS 21:00DL 821	7h 58m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → LGA 08:12DL 5652 · flown by Republic	1h 48m New York	LGA 10:00 → BOS 11:23DL 5728 · flown by Republic	5h 23m	99%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON