Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5145 SDF 12:36 → CLT 14:08 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2816 SDF 19:27 → CLT 21:00 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5145 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SDF 12:36	CLT 14:08	10%	4%	0.8%	95%
AA 1349 American	SDF 06:17	CLT 07:50	11%	5%	1.0%	no record
OH 5292 PSA	SDF 14:53	CLT 16:25	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2099 American Flight history →	SDF 09:55	CLT 11:34	13%	6%	0.8%	83%
AA 2816 American	SDF 19:27	CLT 21:00	20%	7%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON