Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 331 at 06:38 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 331 SDF 06:38 → DFW 08:08 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 2813 SDF 16:20 → DFW 17:41 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 331 American Flight history →	SDF 06:38	DFW 08:08	12%	7%	1.1%	80%
AA 3791 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 13:18	DFW 14:40	12%	3%	0.7%	84%
MQ 4051 Envoy	SDF 11:48	DFW 13:03	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1645 American	SDF 08:24	DFW 09:44	16%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 3629 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 17:59	DFW 19:22	17%	5%	0.7%	69%
AA 3111 American Flight history →	SDF 19:36	DFW 20:59	22%	8%	0.9%	78%
AA 2813 American	SDF 16:20	DFW 17:41	23%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON