Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 3594 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 3594 SDF 06:30 → EWR 08:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest YX 3670 SDF 18:31 → EWR 20:54 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3594 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 06:30	EWR 08:38	6%	2%	3.1%	90%
YX 3569 Republic	SDF 11:21	EWR 13:52	13%	6%	1.6%	no record
UA 3452 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 13:24	EWR 15:48	17%	8%	1.6%	81%
YX 3670 Republic	SDF 18:31	EWR 20:54	28%	11%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON