Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 3508 at 09:58, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3508 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 09:58	IAD 11:49	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 4067 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 13:48	IAD 15:32	14%	6%	1.2%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965	7h 06m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	5h 51m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444	4h 32m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902	7h 13m	100%	84%
United Details →	SDF 07:15 → ORD 07:56UA 3422 · flown by Republic	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 10:52 → IAD 13:49UA 1486	6h 34m	98%	83%
United Details →	SDF 10:26 → ORD 11:11UA 3520 · flown by Republic	1h 44m Chicago	ORD 12:55 → IAD 15:53UA 1128	5h 27m	100%	83%
American Details →	SDF 12:36 → CLT 14:08AA 5145 · flown by PSA	2h 02m Charlotte	CLT 16:10 → IAD 17:44AA 5447 · flown by PSA	5h 08m	100%	82%
American Details →	SDF 06:38 → DFW 08:08AA 331	2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:26 → IAD 14:40AA 524	8h 02m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON