Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2984 at 10:51, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2984 Southwest	SDF 10:51	LAS 11:45	10%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777	6h 31m	96%	88%
United Details →	SDF 06:15 → IAH 07:42UA 6266 · flown by Mesa	3h 13m Houston	IAH 10:55 → LAS 12:14UA 1799	8h 59m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	7h 57m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549	9h 08m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SDF 13:02 → ATL 14:33DL 1481	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → LAS 19:40DL 919	9h 38m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 15:54 → LAS 17:10DL 659	8h 53m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421	8h 38m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:49 → MSP 08:00DL 4928 · flown by Endeavor	3h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	8h 37m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542	6h 30m	59%	49%
Delta Details →	SDF 14:19 → DTW 15:46DL 5160 · flown by Endeavor	49m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766	6h 32m	62%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON