Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5652 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 5652 SDF 06:00 → LGA 08:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 5637 SDF 14:09 → LGA 16:30 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5652 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 06:00	LGA 08:12	6%	4%	3.4%	90%
DL 5643 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 11:42	LGA 13:58	18%	7%	1.4%	85%
DL 5637 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 14:09	LGA 16:30	22%	9%	1.1%	81%
DL 4852 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 17:55	LGA 20:20	38%	23%	7.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON