Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 2073 at 05:57, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2073 American Flight history →	SDF 05:57	MIA 08:35	9%	5%	0.9%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 57m	98%	90%
American Details →	SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic	2h 06m Washington	DCA 09:56 → MIA 12:46AA 401	6h 46m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 57m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SDF 06:52 → LGA 09:12DL 5652 · flown by Republic	2h 03m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	7h 32m	100%	83%
American Details →	SDF 07:05 → ORD 07:50AA 4413 · flown by Republic	2h 16m Chicago	ORD 10:06 → MIA 14:10AA 2689	7h 05m	100%	83%
United Details →	SDF 06:53 → ORD 07:38UA 3422 · flown by Republic	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 09:02 → MIA 13:10UA 1620	6h 17m	97%	82%
American Details →	SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38AA 4750 · flown by Republic	1h 48m Philadelphia	PHL 11:26 → MIA 14:16AA 1989	6h 39m	98%	81%
American Details →	SDF 05:53 → DFW 07:16AA 331	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → MIA 12:55AA 1219	7h 02m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON