Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 4973 SDF 06:26 → MSP 07:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest 9E 4965 SDF 19:53 → MSP 21:08 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 4973 Endeavor	SDF 06:26	MSP 07:44	6%	4%	0.7%	no record
9E 4972 Endeavor	SDF 12:38	MSP 13:54	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 4007 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SDF 16:32	MSP 17:44	10%	5%	0.5%	77%
9E 4965 Endeavor	SDF 19:53	MSP 21:08	10%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON