Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3507 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day YX 3507 SDF 05:21 → ORD 06:08 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4610 SDF 18:17 → ORD 18:52 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3507 Republic	SDF 05:21	ORD 06:08	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 3422 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 06:53	ORD 07:38	8%	3%	0.5%	90%
UA 3520 United flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 10:25	ORD 11:10	9%	2%	0.6%	100%
YX 3477 Republic	SDF 09:04	ORD 09:50	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 4413 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 07:05	ORD 07:50	12%	3%	0.5%	93%
MQ 3582 Envoy	SDF 10:31	ORD 11:07	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3580 Envoy	SDF 14:58	ORD 15:35	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5834 SkyWest	SDF 13:53	ORD 14:29	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 6103 SkyWest	SDF 17:09	ORD 17:34	22%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 4940 SkyWest	SDF 18:02	ORD 18:39	26%	9%	0.7%	no record
G7 4610 GoJet	SDF 18:17	ORD 18:52	33%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON