Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4750 SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest YX 4375 SDF 16:46 → PHL 19:00 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4750 American flown by Republic Flight history →	SDF 07:37	PHL 09:38	7%	2%	1.0%	92%
YX 4375 Republic	SDF 16:46	PHL 19:00	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 5915 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SDF 12:12	PHL 14:20	23%	8%	3.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON