tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3435 Southwest SDF 06:36 PHX 07:41 4% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 03m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic 3h 31m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 9h 00m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SDF 06:15 → IAH 07:42UA 6266 · flown by Mesa 1h 58m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 7h 19m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:38 → DFW 08:08AA 331 2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:20 → PHX 11:06AA 2905 7h 28m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 08m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SDF 07:37 → PHL 09:38AA 4750 · flown by Republic 1h 10m Philadelphia PHL 10:48 → PHX 12:58AA 478 8h 21m 95% 83%
AmericanDetails → SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic 2h 10m Washington DCA 10:00 → PHX 11:44AA 1218 8h 44m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SDF 06:49 → MSP 08:00DL 4928 · flown by Endeavor 1h 28m Minneapolis MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208 6h 54m 94% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SDF 14:19 → DTW 15:46DL 5160 · flown by Endeavor 1h 04m Detroit DTW 16:50 → PHX 17:55DL 1135 6h 36m 73% 59%
DeltaDetails → SDF 12:40 → MSP 13:48DL 4988 · flown by Endeavor 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 6h 29m 61% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON