Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1344 at 17:41, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1344 Southwest	SDF 17:41	TPA 19:48	15%	6%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SDF 06:00 → ATL 07:24DL 2407	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227	4h 07m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:05 → ATL 08:35DL 1610	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	4h 24m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	SDF 08:10 → ATL 09:40DL 2299	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	6h 03m	99%	84%
American Details →	SDF 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4549 · flown by Republic	2h 30m Washington	DCA 10:20 → TPA 12:54AA 3126	6h 54m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SDF 11:17 → ATL 12:45DL 1374	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720	4h 18m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SDF 07:50 → DTW 09:16DL 5824 · flown by Republic	59m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587	5h 00m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	SDF 13:02 → ATL 14:33DL 1481	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 17:22 → TPA 18:57DL 1594	5h 55m	99%	80%
United Details →	SDF 10:26 → ORD 11:11UA 3520 · flown by Republic	1h 48m Chicago	ORD 12:59 → TPA 16:44UA 2244	6h 18m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SDF 17:26 → DTW 18:58DL 4947 · flown by Endeavor	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355	5h 09m	66%	54%
American Details →	SDF 12:12 → PHL 14:20AA 5915 · flown by Piedmont	48m Philadelphia	PHL 15:08 → TPA 18:06AA 2572	5h 54m	72%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON