tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 327 at 09:50, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 327 Alaska Flight history → SEA 09:50 ABQ 13:53 21% 4% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 7h 03m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 32m Denver DEN 11:15 → ABQ 12:46UA 476 6h 46m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 2h 05m Los Angeles LAX 15:00 → ABQ 18:07DL 4091 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:03 → ABQ 13:53AA 3777 · flown by Envoy 7h 48m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:19 → SFO 09:50UA 499 2h 15m San Francisco SFO 12:05 → ABQ 15:40UA 1597 7h 21m 96% 73%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652 47m Atlanta ATL 09:05 → ABQ 10:12DL 1004 8h 46m 80% 72%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505 56m Denver DEN 13:41 → ABQ 15:10UA 1594 5h 14m 82% 70%
AmericanDetails → SEA 07:26 → DFW 13:20AA 1667 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:01 → ABQ 16:58AA 9 8h 32m 96% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SEA 12:12 → MSP 17:25DL 536 46m Minneapolis MSP 18:11 → ABQ 19:55DL 730 6h 43m 70% 62%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:45 → SFO 11:03UA 2831 1h 02m San Francisco SFO 12:05 → ABQ 15:40UA 1597 5h 55m 67% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON