Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2768 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 2768 SEA 07:35 → ANC 10:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 1432 SEA 10:55 → ANC 13:42 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2768 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:35	ANC 10:21	10%	2%	0.6%	94%
AS 386 Alaska	SEA 07:09	ANC 09:55	16%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 7097 Alaska	SEA 01:47	ANC 04:27	18%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 928 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:40	ANC 16:25	19%	4%	0.6%	73%
DL 2367 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:31	ANC 20:26	19%	4%	0.5%	79%
DL 922 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:35	ANC 13:17	22%	4%	0.6%	80%
AS 225 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:59	ANC 19:38	23%	4%	0.9%	77%
AS 92 Alaska	SEA 08:20	ANC 11:06	23%	4%	1.0%	no record
AS 99 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:58	ANC 18:37	25%	4%	0.9%	78%
AS 1434 Alaska	SEA 12:11	ANC 14:57	25%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 708 Alaska	SEA 09:35	ANC 12:21	25%	5%	1.0%	no record
AS 1440 Alaska	SEA 13:21	ANC 16:08	26%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 83 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:39	ANC 14:27	28%	5%	0.9%	72%
AS 1432 Alaska	SEA 10:55	ANC 13:42	29%	4%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON