Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 569 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 569 SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 334 SEA 09:05 → ATL 16:57 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 569 Delta Flight history →	SEA 06:00	ATL 13:53	5%	2%	0.4%	95%
DL 652 Delta Flight history →	SEA 00:26	ATL 08:18	8%	2%	0.4%	89%
DL 562 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	ATL 15:17	16%	4%	0.4%	83%
DL 542 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:35	ATL 21:47	17%	5%	0.4%	80%
DL 560 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:01	ATL 17:03	17%	4%	0.4%	87%
AS 727 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:05	ATL 23:59	19%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 554 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:59	ATL 20:04	21%	5%	0.4%	78%
AS 334 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:05	ATL 16:57	26%	4%	0.6%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	7h 12m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	7h 09m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	7h 17m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON