Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 739 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 739 SEA 07:15 → AUS 13:26 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 502 SEA 11:41 → AUS 17:42 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 739 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	AUS 13:26	12%	4%	0.6%	90%
AS 372 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 18:19	AUS 00:31	21%	5%	0.6%	78%
DL 848 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:50	AUS 23:53	22%	6%	0.5%	75%
DL 831 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:00	AUS 17:16	25%	6%	0.5%	79%
WN 3786 Southwest	SEA 09:01	AUS 15:16	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 352 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:00	AUS 15:04	29%	5%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
AS 502 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:41	AUS 17:42	29%	5%	0.6%	85%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728	6h 00m	86%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON