Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 815 SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AS 504 SEA 17:32 → BNA 23:47 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 815 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	BNA 23:54	17%	4%	0.6%	82%
AS 522 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:33	BNA 15:46	23%	4%	0.7%	82%
AS 504 Alaska	SEA 17:32	BNA 23:47	24%	4%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46DL 2214	6h 16m	96%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON