Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 459 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 459 SEA 07:29 → BOS 16:00 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 306 SEA 10:18 → BOS 18:20 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 459 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:29	BOS 16:00	13%	5%	0.7%	88%
DL 474 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:00	BOS 00:14	21%	6%	0.6%	71%
AS 357 Alaska	SEA 07:39	BOS 15:41	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 460 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:36	BOS 23:59	27%	7%	0.7%	80%
DL 438 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:15	BOS 19:43	27%	9%	0.6%	65%
AS 306 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:18	BOS 18:20	42%	12%	0.7%	76%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 25m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	54m Detroit	DTW 17:58 → BOS 20:00DL 1707	7h 15m	79%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON