Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 21–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 1389 SEA 08:26 → BUR 10:54 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 478 SEA 10:11 → BUR 12:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 1389 Alaska	SEA 08:26	BUR 10:54	21%	3%	1.5%	no record
AS 530 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:28	BUR 18:57	24%	5%	1.1%	84%
AS 529 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:55	BUR 16:24	28%	5%	1.2%	73%
AS 478 Alaska	SEA 10:11	BUR 12:40	30%	5%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON