Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:20, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 378 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:03	BWI 17:04	19%	4%	0.7%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357	7h 22m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	9h 35m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	3h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565	9h 10m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	2h 23m Detroit	DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480	8h 11m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:12 → MSP 17:25DL 536	2h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918	8h 01m	98%	85%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 03m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267	8h 15m	98%	81%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	3h 07m Chicago	ORD 20:12 → BWI 23:23UA 220	9h 31m	95%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 07:10 → CLT 15:22AA 854	49m Charlotte	CLT 16:11 → BWI 17:54AA 3121	7h 44m	74%	59%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:15 → BOS 19:43DL 438	52m Boston	BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic	8h 14m	64%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON