Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 216 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:10	CLE 16:36	19%	4%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 07:11 → CLE 10:09DL 1083	6h 49m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978	8h 06m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → CLE 22:58DL 2855	8h 49m	99%	83%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	57m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619	6h 36m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:42DL 1350	9h 42m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:03DL 560	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → CLE 21:45DL 1339	9h 44m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:20 → ATL 15:17DL 562	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → CLE 20:45DL 2150	10h 25m	95%	77%
United Details →	SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505	1h 10m Denver	DEN 13:55 → CLE 18:53UA 2476	6h 57m	88%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:26 → CLE 21:14AA 1484	7h 52m	69%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON