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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 381 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 381 SEA 06:33 → CLT 14:46 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 585 SEA 12:38 → CLT 20:52 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 381 American Flight history → SEA 06:33 CLT 14:46 11% 3% 0.7% 94%
AA 854 American Flight history → SEA 07:10 CLT 15:22 19% 4% 0.7% 83%
AA 585 American SEA 12:38 CLT 20:52 25% 6% 0.7% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 07:12 → CLT 10:39DL 1912 7h 19m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812 1h 23m Detroit DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429 7h 25m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:51 → CLT 15:18UA 2231 7h 18m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON