Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:20, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 450 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:41	CMH 17:09	26%	4%	0.6%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772	6h 42m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	10h 12m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	8h 17m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786	10h 03m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:03DL 560	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 20:33 → CMH 22:15DL 1501	10h 14m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → CMH 22:52DL 2230	8h 43m	99%	81%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic	8h 32m	91%	81%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	52m Denver	DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28UA 480	6h 28m	90%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:29 → CMH 21:08AA 1348	7h 46m	71%	52%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	54m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → CMH 20:26UA 1278	6h 34m	65%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON