tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: DL 558 at 11:29 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 558 Delta Flight history → SEA 11:29 CVG 18:47 15% 3% 0.5% 89%
AS 451 Alaska SEA 10:01 CVG 17:08 27% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953 1h 38m Minneapolis MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954 6h 43m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160 7h 59m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273 6h 33m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CVG 22:46DL 2291 8h 37m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 7h 41m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:03DL 560 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 19:32 → CVG 21:01DL 2248 9h 00m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 57m Denver DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:27UA 1978 6h 27m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → SEA 07:20 → ATL 15:17DL 562 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119 9h 05m 94% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SEA 11:15 → BOS 19:43DL 438 1h 02m Boston BOS 20:45 → CVG 23:16DL 5801 · flown by Republic 9h 01m 73% 55%
AmericanDetails → SEA 07:10 → CLT 15:22AA 854 47m Charlotte CLT 16:09 → CVG 17:31AA 5293 · flown by PSA 7h 21m 72% 54%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:27 → CVG 20:53AA 799 7h 31m 70% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON