Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 786 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 786 SEA 07:20 → DCA 15:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 2 SEA 13:46 → DCA 21:59 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 786 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	DCA 15:21	12%	4%	0.8%	91%
AS 4 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:00	DCA 16:16	24%	5%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
AS 2 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:46	DCA 21:59	29%	8%	0.6%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 12:12 → MSP 17:25DL 536	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 18:35 → DCA 22:02DL 2962	6h 50m	92%	74%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	47m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	6h 59m	85%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON