Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3753 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3753 SEA 05:51 → DEN 09:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 602 SEA 14:22 → DEN 17:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3753 Southwest	SEA 05:51	DEN 09:29	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2601 United Flight history →	SEA 05:00	DEN 08:43	4%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 1505 United Flight history →	SEA 08:56	DEN 12:45	15%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 757 United Flight history →	SEA 16:02	DEN 20:04	16%	5%	0.6%	88%
DL 1358 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:10	DEN 12:02	16%	4%	0.5%	85%
UA 2033 United	SEA 12:43	DEN 16:30	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 682 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:19	DEN 10:53	19%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 333 United Flight history →	SEA 14:33	DEN 18:22	22%	6%	0.6%	66%
DL 2543 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:50	DEN 17:43	23%	7%	0.5%	39%
WN 3754 Southwest	SEA 11:08	DEN 14:50	24%	5%	0.5%	no record
F9 3406 Frontier Flight history →	SEA 16:38	DEN 20:28	25%	7%	0.8%	78%
AS 535 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:44	DEN 15:38	25%	5%	0.6%	78%
WN 3755 Southwest	SEA 14:11	DEN 17:50	27%	6%	0.5%	no record
AS 304 Alaska	SEA 12:44	DEN 16:17	30%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1841 Southwest	SEA 16:16	DEN 19:56	30%	6%	0.5%	no record
AS 602 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:22	DEN 17:55	31%	5%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON