Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 812 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 812 SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 313 SEA 09:18 → DTW 16:33 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 812 Delta Flight history →	SEA 05:30	DTW 12:42	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2324 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:45	DTW 17:04	16%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 533 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	DTW 21:49	17%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 1706 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:20	DTW 18:37	19%	4%	0.6%	79%
AS 313 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:18	DTW 16:33	22%	3%	0.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON