Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2191 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 14:08	ELP 18:36	39%	4%	3.8%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	2h 43m Denver	DEN 11:26 → ELP 13:29UA 2128	7h 29m	99%	84%
United Details →	SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135	3h 27m Houston	IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa	9h 57m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:03DL 560	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713	10h 49m	97%	77%
American Details →	SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748	3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:37 → ELP 15:33AA 1681	9h 28m	99%	71%
American Details →	SEA 11:27 → PHX 14:37AA 4117 · flown by Envoy	1h 34m Phoenix	PHX 16:11 → ELP 18:39AA 2875	6h 12m	93%	66%
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:01 → ELP 18:57AA 555	7h 35m	88%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON