Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3128 SEA 17:40 → EUG 18:59 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4149 SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3128 SkyWest	SEA 17:40	EUG 18:59	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 181 SkyWest	SEA 16:09	EUG 17:28	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 3016 SkyWest	SEA 15:53	EUG 17:12	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 4149 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:30	EUG 12:58	14%	6%	0.7%	88%
AS 2047 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 22:49	EUG 23:59	10%	0%	0.0%	90%
AS 2072 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 07:55	EUG 09:07	19%	0%	0.0%	81%
AS 2338 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 15:50	EUG 17:00	32%	5%	0.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON