Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1900 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 1900 SEA 07:30 → EWR 15:51 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1708 SEA 13:05 → EWR 21:29 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1900 United Flight history →	SEA 07:30	EWR 15:51	16%	4%	0.8%	90%
AS 292 Alaska	SEA 09:55	EWR 17:41	33%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 295 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:51	EWR 16:46	34%	8%	1.0%	83%worse than usual
UA 1708 United Flight history →	SEA 13:05	EWR 21:29	35%	12%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON