tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 383 at 12:55, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 383 Alaska Flight history → SEA 12:55 FAT 15:01 30% 5% 0.7% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fresno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → FAT 11:47DL 3768 · flown by SkyWest 6h 17m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016 3h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 15:43 → FAT 16:32DL 3777 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 46m Denver DEN 11:29 → FAT 13:14UA 5655 · flown by SkyWest 8h 14m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505 2h 50m Denver DEN 15:35 → FAT 17:01UA 5978 · flown by SkyWest 8h 05m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy 1h 18m Phoenix PHX 10:36 → FAT 12:36AA 2396 6h 20m 95% 80%
AmericanDetails → SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748 1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:28 → FAT 13:58AA 1329 8h 53m 97% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 08:36 → SAN 11:16AS 650 3h 08m San Diego SAN 14:24 → FAT 15:52AS 3388 · flown by SkyWest 7h 16m 99% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:21 → FAT 18:43AA 1223 8h 21m 60% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON