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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 338 Delta Flight history → SEA 13:00 FLL 21:52 20% 7% 0.6% 75%
AS 516 Alaska Flight history → SEA 08:23 FLL 17:27 23% 6% 0.7% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953 3h 14m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673 10h 05m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 8h 57m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745 8h 58m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 03m Denver DEN 09:46 → FLL 15:46UA 1214 7h 46m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505 3h 19m Denver DEN 16:04 → FLL 22:07UA 1374 10h 11m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135 2h 49m Houston IAH 16:20 → FLL 20:07UA 277 10h 02m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324 3h 40m Detroit DTW 20:44 → FLL 23:42DL 2296 10h 57m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:03DL 560 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 19:58 → FLL 21:56DL 1489 9h 55m 97% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON