Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 3830 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 3830 SEA 07:15 → GEG 08:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 454 SEA 11:33 → GEG 12:38 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3830 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:15	GEG 08:32	11%	3%	0.7%	96%
DL 3832 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:59	GEG 19:15	13%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 3857 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 15:40	GEG 16:55	13%	4%	0.6%	93%
DL 4145 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:35	GEG 15:47	15%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 3824 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 09:35	GEG 10:48	18%	4%	0.7%	89%
DL 3754 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:50	GEG 12:11	20%	5%	0.7%	82%
OO 3142 SkyWest	SEA 10:25	GEG 11:40	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 454 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:33	GEG 12:38	34%	4%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
AS 2135 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 07:20	GEG 08:26	7%	2%	0.0%	93%
AS 2200 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 09:55	GEG 11:00	8%	2%	1.9%	92%
AS 2074 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 14:22	GEG 15:25	16%	0%	1.8%	84%
AS 2349 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 13:35	GEG 14:38	27%	0%	8.3%	73%
AS 2071 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 21:30	GEG 22:36	30%	11%	0.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON