Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 419 at 16:39 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 35–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 419 SEA 16:39 → HNL 19:59 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AS 626 SEA 10:55 → HNL 14:04 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 419 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:39	HNL 19:59	26%	9%	0.7%	74%
AS 121 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:20	HNL 19:16	33%	9%	0.8%	70%
DL 351 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:25	HNL 11:34	35%	9%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
AS 821 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:32	HNL 10:33	42%	11%	1.3%	72%worse than usual
AS 899 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:30	HNL 16:34	44%	10%	0.8%	53%
AS 626 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:55	HNL 14:04	50%	14%	0.9%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON