Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2702 at 00:09 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 2702 SEA 00:09 → IAH 06:21 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 438 SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2702 United	SEA 00:09	IAH 06:21	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2135 United Flight history →	SEA 07:05	IAH 13:31	14%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 1660 United Flight history →	SEA 17:00	IAH 23:26	16%	5%	0.7%	84%
AS 240 Alaska	SEA 17:35	IAH 00:05	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1752 United	SEA 12:08	IAH 18:36	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 438 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:52	IAH 17:16	36%	6%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:30 → IAH 13:42DL 1532	6h 12m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299	6h 23m	91%	76%
American Details →	SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:57 → IAH 13:15AA 1397	6h 10m	92%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON