Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 2117 at 09:09, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 2117 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	SEA 09:09	ICT 14:43	15%	5%	0.9%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:17DL 652	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → ICT 12:32DL 828	10h 06m	100%	93%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 12m Denver	DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest	5h 27m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 16:31 → ICT 17:47DL 2128	9h 47m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 13:22 → ICT 15:15DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest	7h 10m	98%	88%
United Details →	SEA 08:26 → DEN 12:11UA 1505	1h 48m Denver	DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	93%	82%
American Details →	SEA 08:04 → DFW 14:00AA 1667	3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:07 → ICT 18:30AA 3691 · flown by Envoy	8h 26m	97%	81%
American Details →	SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748	3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:20 → ICT 15:51AA 2304	8h 46m	99%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON