Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 3026 at 12:34, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 3026 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 12:34	IDA 15:30	16%	6%	0.6%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	2h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → IDA 12:19DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	5h 49m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → IDA 18:18DL 3895 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	99%	92%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	3h 02m Denver	DEN 11:45 → IDA 13:25UA 2383	7h 25m	99%	86%
American Details →	SEA 11:40 → DFW 17:50AA 767	2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → IDA 22:11AA 6467 · flown by SkyWest	9h 31m	94%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON