Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 500 at 09:09, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 500 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:09	IND 16:16	24%	4%	0.7%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456	8h 08m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	9h 10m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910	6h 28m	98%	88%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35UA 1522	6h 35m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 17:27 → IND 19:07DL 3120	10h 07m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:03DL 560	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482	10h 26m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:50 → IND 22:59DL 2228	8h 50m	99%	81%
United Details →	SEA 10:52 → ORD 17:05UA 2835	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic	8h 13m	91%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	47m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27DL 1482	7h 28m	58%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON