tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 3122 at 08:06, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 3122 SkyWest SEA 08:06 JAC 11:08 19% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 5h 45m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016 3h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 15:39 → JAC 16:47DL 509 6h 17m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 32m Denver DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193 6h 46m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest 5h 07m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505 3h 35m Denver DEN 16:20 → JAC 17:53UA 2200 7h 57m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:19 → SFO 09:50UA 499 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 13:26 → JAC 16:42UA 1593 8h 23m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:17 → JAC 19:08AA 3042 7h 46m 53% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON