Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 429 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 429 SEA 07:15 → JFK 15:49 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 34 SEA 13:26 → JFK 21:14 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 429 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	JFK 15:49	9%	4%	0.7%	88%
DL 1044 Delta	SEA 16:06	JFK 00:03	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 415 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:34	JFK 20:15	20%	8%	0.7%	74%
AS 26 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:27	JFK 17:18	26%	6%	0.9%	86%worse than usual
AS 16 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:03	JFK 14:55	30%	5%	0.9%	63%
AS 34 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:26	JFK 21:14	37%	8%	0.8%	76%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	55m Detroit	DTW 17:59 → JFK 19:39DL 1316	6h 54m	82%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON