Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 340 SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AS 518 SEA 09:58 → KOA 13:02 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 340 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	KOA 17:35	15%	6%	0.7%	78%
AS 238 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:59	KOA 19:05	20%	4%	0.7%	77%
AS 518 Alaska	SEA 09:58	KOA 13:02	20%	4%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 08:30 → OGG 11:35AS 245	1h 25m Kahului	OGG 13:00 → KOA 13:36AS 1030	8h 06m	91%	68%
Alaska Details →	SEA 07:32 → HNL 10:33AS 821	2h 05m Honolulu	HNL 12:38 → KOA 13:36AS 1128	9h 04m	95%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON