Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AS 65 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day


AS 65 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:03	KTN 08:13	14%	3%	0.7%	88%
AS 67 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:37	KTN 16:43	24%	4%	0.7%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ketchikan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ketchikan is 1 h behind Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON