Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4769 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4769 SEA 06:16 → LAS 08:42 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 678 SEA 14:56 → LAS 17:17 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4769 Southwest	SEA 06:16	LAS 08:42	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2922 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:25	LAS 10:01	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 2905 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:50	LAS 12:25	20%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 2880 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:05	LAS 13:42	21%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 2955 Delta Flight history →	SEA 16:25	LAS 19:00	21%	7%	0.6%	78%
AS 1363 Alaska	SEA 08:07	LAS 10:29	26%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 738 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:31	LAS 14:16	29%	6%	0.7%	80%
AS 612 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:50	LAS 13:11	31%	5%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
WN 2234 Southwest	SEA 14:06	LAS 16:33	33%	10%	0.6%	no record
AS 703 Alaska	SEA 17:28	LAS 19:48	35%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 678 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:56	LAS 17:17	36%	9%	0.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON