Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AS 505 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day AS 505 SEA 06:03 → LAX 08:47 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AS 458 SEA 14:56 → LAX 17:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 505 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:03	LAX 08:47	10%	2%	0.7%	84%
OO 6053 SkyWest	SEA 06:34	LAX 09:52	10%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 1628 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	LAX 10:05	12%	3%	0.5%	93%
AA 4896 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:00	LAX 10:02	13%	5%	0.7%	86%
DL 2914 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:35	LAX 15:23	14%	5%	0.5%	86%
DL 2769 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:05	LAX 12:55	14%	5%	0.5%	85%
AA 6438 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:02	LAX 19:45	15%	5%	0.7%	84%
OO 4796 SkyWest	SEA 16:42	LAX 19:25	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 4988 SkyWest	SEA 13:07	LAX 15:50	18%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 4729 SkyWest	SEA 12:23	LAX 15:06	18%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 2861 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	LAX 20:13	19%	6%	0.5%	76%
DL 2830 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:10	LAX 17:51	19%	6%	0.4%	85%
AS 492 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:10	LAX 19:55	20%	6%	0.7%	78%
AS 1306 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:55	LAX 12:27	21%	4%	0.7%	91%worse than usual
AS 696 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:38	LAX 16:25	22%	5%	0.7%	82%
AS 1300 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:59	LAX 18:44	24%	6%	0.7%	77%
AS 487 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:15	LAX 14:01	26%	6%	0.7%	57%
AS 458 Alaska	SEA 14:56	LAX 17:25	29%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON