Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 345 at 15:50 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 345 SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AS 258 SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 345 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:50	LIH 18:58	20%	7%	0.7%	76%
AS 237 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:56	LIH 20:23	24%	5%	0.7%	76%
AS 258 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:28	LIH 14:40	37%	6%	0.7%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	1h 05m Kahului	OGG 14:24 → LIH 15:13AS 1159	7h 58m	76%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON