Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 501 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:08	MCI 13:31	17%	3%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
DL 2256 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:30	MCI 23:00	22%	7%	0.6%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	2h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882	6h 27m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → MCI 12:18DL 2747	9h 52m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	2h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613	7h 09m	98%	88%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 00m Denver	DEN 09:43 → MCI 12:30UA 2159	5h 30m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	3h 12m Detroit	DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761	9h 24m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	3h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:40 → MCI 17:05DL 2903	7h 50m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 45m Detroit	DTW 19:49 → MCI 20:49DL 1321	9h 04m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:03DL 560	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → MCI 21:52DL 3023	10h 51m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 07:19 → SFO 09:50UA 499	1h 03m San Francisco	SFO 10:53 → MCI 16:30UA 2072	7h 11m	74%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON