Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 420 SEA 15:23 → MCO 23:44 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AS 346 SEA 08:26 → MCO 16:42 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 420 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 15:23	MCO 23:44	19%	4%	0.7%	82%
DL 328 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:51	MCO 17:35	22%	6%	1.7%	75%
AS 346 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:26	MCO 16:42	27%	5%	1.7%	88%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658	7h 31m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13DL 2032	7h 43m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	7h 40m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON