Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 00:26, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	9h 30m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	8h 15m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → MDW 08:37DL 4712 · flown by Endeavor	6h 17m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	1h 03m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 44m	84%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON